401. Are we in a recession? Maybe professional Santas can tell us
An argument that declining demand for professional Santas and seasonal workers may indicate an economic recession.
402. The AI bust scenario that no one is talking about
An argument that the potential AI bubble may lead to a bust, exploring various scenarios and emphasizing the technology's rapid adoption compared to past technological failures.
403. An Insight into the Vibecession and Aggregate Statistics Divergence
Menzie Chinn analyzes per capita consumption trends and consumer sentiment, highlighting discrepancies in economic indicators related to the current economic climate.
404. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 1% in November
A decrease in the Dodge Momentum Index indicates a slowdown in commercial real estate planning, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures and varying demand across sectors.
405. The Economics Behind Pantone’s Color of the Year
Jadrian Wooten discusses how Pantone's color system exemplifies economic principles like network effects and standardization, influencing market power and communication in design industries.
406. Emptying my browser with links
The post shares a collection of diverse links covering topics such as economics, AI, political science, and cultural observations, reflecting on various studies and articles.
407. Not so fast, Netflix. Paramount launches hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
A hostile bid by Paramount for Warner Bros. Discovery disrupts recent celebrations between Netflix and Warner Bros. executives over a new deal.
408. Is This The End of the Free World?
Paul Krugman discusses the Trump administration's hostility towards Europe and its democratic values, highlighting a shift towards authoritarianism and the influence of far-right politics.
409. China's trade surplus hits $1 trillion for first time ever
A significant trade surplus for China is highlighted, despite declining exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, indicating resilience in global markets.
410. Housing December 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.7% Week-over-week
The post discusses a decline in active single-family housing inventory, highlighting seasonal trends and comparisons to previous years' data.
411. Stablecoins As a Rorschach Test
Menzie Chinn discusses the implications of stablecoins and the regulatory framework established by the GENIUS Act, highlighting their benefits and risks.
412. Supreme Court appears poised to vastly expand presidential powers
A case before the Supreme Court challenges a long-standing precedent that restricts presidential authority over independent agencies, stemming from Trump's dismissal of a Federal Trade Commissioner.
413. SecTrsy Bessent: “The American people don’t know how good they have it.”
Menzie Chinn discusses Americans' economic perceptions, inflation, real incomes, and the disconnect between sentiment and economic activity.
414. SBSQ #27: Is redistricting backfiring on Republicans?
An argument that aggressive Republican redistricting may backfire, potentially endangering seats, while Democrats gain advantages in population and state control dynamics.
415. My 2011 Review of Contagion
The review reflects on the film Contagion, discussing pandemic preparedness, public health improvements, and the challenges of responding to viral outbreaks.
416. FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected
A 25bps rate cut by the FOMC is anticipated, with expectations of declining inflation and rising unemployment influencing the decision-making process.
417. Affordability, Part II
An argument that conventional measures of purchasing power overlook significant factors affecting economic inclusion, security, and fairness, contributing to Americans' dissatisfaction with affordability.
418. Europe is under siege
Noah Smith discusses Europe's current geopolitical vulnerabilities and the shifting American perception of its importance, emphasizing historical lessons about power and independence.
419. Trump’s Economic Team – cont’d
Menzie Chinn discusses concerns regarding Hassett's potential role at the Fed and the composition of Trump's economic team amid political influences.
420. Guest Contribution: “How Geopolitical Tensions Could Shape France’s Inflation Outlook”
An argument that geopolitical tensions significantly influence France's inflation outlook through various economic channels, including commodity prices and fiscal dynamics.