June Unemployment Update

4.8 million jobs returned this month, still leaving 15 million unemployed. The Administration like to say they’ve “created” ~7 million jobs the past two months, when in reality, workers are simply returning to work.

Some graphs of note this morning:

The most important detail to remember is that the BLS pulls monthly employment data in the middle of the month, so as seen below, cases were on the decline and businesses were reopening. However, the latter half of June saw meteoric rises in cases, which undoubtably will slow the pace of economic activity.

Fortunately, the bleeding seems to have stopped for State & Local government employees losing their jobs due to steep tax revenue declines.

The next two graphs illustrate just how severe this downturn has been for households. As businesses closed, the intention was to bring employees back once it was safe to do so, right? Now as we’re 3.5 months into this and the curve was never flattened, some employees are being re-classified as *not* on temporary layoff. The longer the virus is growing, the longer and deeper the recession will be.