1. Core CPI at Consensus
An argument that recent CPI data reveals rising grocery prices and diverging trends in food price components, with forecasts indicating increasing inflation rates.
2. Can Democrats escape their Florida death spiral?
Eli McKown-Dawson discusses the challenges facing Florida Democrats, highlighting their declining electoral prospects and the implications for the party's future in the state.
3. Claude Code 19: When the Reclassification Is Massive But the Trends Don't Change, Something Interesting Is Happening (Part 4)
The analysis explores the reclassification of speeches and its implications for measurement, revealing stable aggregate trends despite significant label changes.
4. The MAGA Bubble Is Imploding
The post discusses the disconnect between stock market performance and the actual economic conditions, highlighting political desperation and public disillusionment with the current administration.
5. Show You Care (with Econ)
The discussion explores how economic concepts like signaling and marginal thinking can enhance personal relationships, particularly in romantic contexts, through thoughtful gestures and communication.
6. You are no longer the smartest type of thing on Earth
The discussion centers on the rapid advancement of AI, its growing capabilities, and the implications for human intelligence and job markets, particularly in software engineering.
7. Ten Days to 2025Q4 Advance Release: Nowcasts, Forecasts
Menzie Chinn discusses GDP growth forecasts, emphasizing the importance of final sales and the impact of inventory accumulation on economic projections.
8. Israel accuses two of using military secrets to place Polymarket bets
Bobby Allyn discusses an indictment in Tel Aviv involving individuals accused of using military secrets for betting on a prediction market.
9. Claude Code 18: When the Reclassification Is Massive But the Trends Don’t Change, Something Interesting Is Happening
An exploration of reclassifying congressional speeches reveals significant label changes without affecting overall trends, prompting questions about data consistency and analysis methods.
10. I Regret to Inform You that the FDA is FDAing Again
The post critiques the FDA's recent refusal to review Moderna's mRNA influenza vaccine application, highlighting issues of regulatory uncertainty and political influence on health decisions.
11. That Was Then/This is Now
Alex Tabarrok discusses the evolving perspectives on economic and political issues, highlighting perceived contradictions in current debates.
12. Making America Stagnate Again
An argument that recent job growth data reveals stagnation in the economy, critiquing political narratives around immigration and employment under the current administration.
13. 6 GOP reps defy Trump to block Canadian tariffs. And, student loan defaults rise
Suzanne Nuyen discusses six GOP representatives who opposed Trump’s Canadian tariffs and the rise in student loan defaults.
14. Heritage Chief Economist Interprets Biden vs. Trump Employment Trends
An argument that compares employment trends under Biden and Trump, highlighting differences in private and government employment growth during their respective terms.
15. US Budget Deficits: Spitting Into the Wind
An argument that US budget deficits and rising federal debt present long-term economic challenges, driven by increasing interest payments and their impact on growth and spending.
16. Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
Claudia Sahm discusses the stalled payroll growth and recent employment data, highlighting a stronger-than-expected hiring rebound and the challenges of measuring economic dynamics.
17. Business Cycle Indicators
An argument that various economic indicators, including employment and production metrics, are analyzed to assess business cycle trends and revisions.
18. A Levels Perspective on the Employment Situation Release
Menzie Chinn analyzes the recent nonfarm payroll employment data, highlighting discrepancies and trends in employment growth and revisions in forecasts.
19. The Banality of MAGA Evil
An argument that the true nature of conspiracies in MAGA politics is less about grand schemes and more about the incompetence and moral failings of key figures.
20. Roundup #77: The Fix-Everything Button
The post discusses public safety improvements in transit systems, the impact of AI on job markets, and the need for effective measures to maintain public order.
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