1. Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
Claudia Sahm discusses the stalled payroll growth and recent employment data, highlighting a stronger-than-expected hiring rebound and the challenges of measuring economic dynamics.
2. Business Cycle Indicators
An argument that various economic indicators, including employment and production metrics, are analyzed to assess business cycle trends and revisions.
3. A Levels Perspective on the Employment Situation Release
Menzie Chinn analyzes the recent nonfarm payroll employment data, highlighting discrepancies and trends in employment growth and revisions in forecasts.
4. The Banality of MAGA Evil
An argument that the true nature of conspiracies in MAGA politics is less about grand schemes and more about the incompetence and moral failings of key figures.
5. Roundup #77: The Fix-Everything Button
The post discusses public safety improvements in transit systems, the impact of AI on job markets, and the need for effective measures to maintain public order.
6. U.S. unexpectedly adds 130,000 jobs in January after a weak 2025
Scott Horsley discusses the unexpected addition of 130,000 jobs in January and the revised weaker job growth from the previous year.
7. My simple model of fertility decline
Tyler Cowen discusses the decline in global fertility rates due to improved birth control and changing societal preferences regarding family size.
8. The singularity won't be gentle
An argument that the anticipated rapid advancements in AI will lead to significant and unpredictable political consequences, challenging the notion of a gentle transition to a technologically advanced society.
9. Households under Debt Stress: Two Pictures
An argument that examines the financial pressures on households and presents two contrasting perspectives on debt stress and its implications.
10. Miran: No “…material inflation from tariffs.”
Menzie Chinn discusses the implications of tariffs on inflation, arguing against concerns about significant macroeconomic inflation from tariffs, referencing various economic studies.
11. A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
Claudia Sahm discusses the unusual labor market conditions in the U.S., highlighting stagnant job growth without a recession and the implications for workers and the economy.
12. What are Folk Economic Beliefs?
Timothy Taylor discusses folk economic beliefs, their origins, and how they shape political opinions despite often conflicting with economic theory.
13. Recursive self-improvement from AI models
The discussion focuses on the rapid advancements in AI through recursive self-improvement, highlighting potential increases in update frequency and implications for various industries.
14. Tuesday's Assorted Links
The post highlights various stories that illustrate economic principles and their applications, including consumer spending and the cost of car insurance.
15. No, AI Doesn’t Justify Lower Interest Rates
An argument that AI's potential productivity gains do not justify lower interest rates, countering claims made by political figures amid ongoing inflation challenges.
16. Will Commodity Sports Last?
An argument that the emergence of Commodity Sports markets offers benefits and challenges, impacting bettors, casinos, and state regulations while raising concerns about the implications for accurate forecasting.
17. Claude Code 17: The Zero Profit Condition Is Coming
An argument that competitive markets eliminate surplus, leading to a zero profit condition, while improving overall work quality in fields like applied social science.
18. How much power does the Fed chair really have?
The discussion focuses on the actual influence of the Fed chair compared to their formal voting power within the Federal Reserve system.
19. Poverty reduction is slowing down
Tyler Cowen discusses the stagnation of economic growth in Africa, attributing it to deep-rooted societal issues rather than just state failures.
20. On Brian Cantwell Smith and the Promise of AI
The post reflects on the late philosopher's insights into AI, emphasizing the distinction between human judgment and AI's calculative capabilities, and the implications for understanding intelligence.
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