Econ Blog

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Claude Code 18: When the Reclassification Is Massive But the Trends Don’t Change, Something Interesting Is Happening

1. Claude Code 18: When the Reclassification Is Massive But the Trends Don’t Change, Something Interesting Is Happening

An exploration of reclassifying congressional speeches reveals significant label changes without affecting overall trends, prompting questions about data consistency and analysis methods.

I Regret to Inform You that the FDA is FDAing Again

2. I Regret to Inform You that the FDA is FDAing Again

The post critiques the FDA's recent refusal to review Moderna's mRNA influenza vaccine application, highlighting issues of regulatory uncertainty and political influence on health decisions.

That Was Then/This is Now

3. That Was Then/This is Now

Alex Tabarrok discusses the evolving perspectives on economic and political issues, highlighting perceived contradictions in current debates.

Making America Stagnate Again

4. Making America Stagnate Again

An argument that recent job growth data reveals stagnation in the economy, critiquing political narratives around immigration and employment under the current administration.

6 GOP reps defy Trump to block Canadian tariffs. And, student loan defaults rise

5. 6 GOP reps defy Trump to block Canadian tariffs. And, student loan defaults rise

Suzanne Nuyen discusses six GOP representatives who opposed Trump’s Canadian tariffs and the rise in student loan defaults.

Heritage Chief Economist Interprets Biden vs. Trump Employment Trends

6. Heritage Chief Economist Interprets Biden vs. Trump Employment Trends

An argument that compares employment trends under Biden and Trump, highlighting differences in private and government employment growth during their respective terms.

US Budget Deficits: Spitting Into the Wind

7. US Budget Deficits: Spitting Into the Wind

An argument that US budget deficits and rising federal debt present long-term economic challenges, driven by increasing interest payments and their impact on growth and spending.

Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession

8. Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession

Claudia Sahm discusses the stalled payroll growth and recent employment data, highlighting a stronger-than-expected hiring rebound and the challenges of measuring economic dynamics.

Business Cycle Indicators

9. Business Cycle Indicators

An argument that various economic indicators, including employment and production metrics, are analyzed to assess business cycle trends and revisions.

A Levels Perspective on the Employment Situation Release

10. A Levels Perspective on the Employment Situation Release

Menzie Chinn analyzes the recent nonfarm payroll employment data, highlighting discrepancies and trends in employment growth and revisions in forecasts.

The Banality of MAGA Evil

11. The Banality of MAGA Evil

An argument that the true nature of conspiracies in MAGA politics is less about grand schemes and more about the incompetence and moral failings of key figures.

Roundup #77: The Fix-Everything Button

12. Roundup #77: The Fix-Everything Button

The post discusses public safety improvements in transit systems, the impact of AI on job markets, and the need for effective measures to maintain public order.

U.S. unexpectedly adds 130,000 jobs in January after a weak 2025

13. U.S. unexpectedly adds 130,000 jobs in January after a weak 2025

Scott Horsley discusses the unexpected addition of 130,000 jobs in January and the revised weaker job growth from the previous year.

My simple model of fertility decline

14. My simple model of fertility decline

Tyler Cowen discusses the decline in global fertility rates due to improved birth control and changing societal preferences regarding family size.

The singularity won't be gentle

15. The singularity won't be gentle

An argument that the anticipated rapid advancements in AI will lead to significant and unpredictable political consequences, challenging the notion of a gentle transition to a technologically advanced society.

Households under Debt Stress: Two Pictures

16. Households under Debt Stress: Two Pictures

An argument that examines the financial pressures on households and presents two contrasting perspectives on debt stress and its implications.

Miran:  No “…material inflation from tariffs.”

17. Miran: No “…material inflation from tariffs.”

Menzie Chinn discusses the implications of tariffs on inflation, arguing against concerns about significant macroeconomic inflation from tariffs, referencing various economic studies.

A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession

18. A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession

Claudia Sahm discusses the unusual labor market conditions in the U.S., highlighting stagnant job growth without a recession and the implications for workers and the economy.

19. What are Folk Economic Beliefs?

Timothy Taylor discusses folk economic beliefs, their origins, and how they shape political opinions despite often conflicting with economic theory.

Recursive self-improvement from AI models

20. Recursive self-improvement from AI models

The discussion focuses on the rapid advancements in AI through recursive self-improvement, highlighting potential increases in update frequency and implications for various industries.