your daily dose of economic commentary
An argument that evaluating AI's cognitive capabilities should mirror methodologies used in studying infants and animals, highlighting discrepancies between benchmark performance and real-world abilities.
Eli McKown-Dawson discusses the inaccuracies of polls in recent elections, particularly underestimating Democrats, and evaluates polling performance in 2025 compared to historical data.
Nate Silver discusses updated pollster ratings based on historical accuracy and transparency for the 2024 elections, providing insights into future polling reliability.
Nate Silver discusses the archived pollster ratings following the 2024 presidential election, detailing their accuracy and transparency based on historical data.
Paul Krugman critiques Donald Trump's economic policies as transactional and opportunistic, lacking genuine economic principles, while also highlighting his political motivations behind these actions.
The post examines the economic factors contributing to unrest in Iran, including a severe water crisis, inflation, and the impact of U.S. sanctions on the regime's stability.
The post provides a video walkthrough of using Claude Code for empirical projects, emphasizing the importance of personal experience and individual workflow styles.
An argument that Mill's interpretation of Ricardo's labor value aligns with Marx's theory of surplus value, highlighting the relationship between profits and wages.
An argument that immigration's impact on British politics may be overstated, emphasizing the need to recognize positive aspects while addressing potential negative political externalities.
The post examines price changes of various items at Walmart, highlighting factors like tariffs, weather impacts, and shrinkflation.
The Associated Press discusses China's record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion, highlighting its growth despite the tariffs imposed by Trump.
Menzie Chinn discusses the rise in grocery prices and forecasts from the USDA Economic Research Service, highlighting the impact on consumers and specific food items like coffee.
An argument that presents a new NFL model for team ratings, detailing projections, quarterback assessments, and the impact of injuries on team performance.
An argument that bond yields and the dollar's value fluctuate due to perceptions of Federal Reserve independence and the political landscape surrounding Chair Powell's tenure.
Menzie Chinn discusses how tariffs can serve as national security tools to maintain domestic production of essential goods and address market vulnerabilities.
An argument that a company managing AI answer landing pages deceived users into incurring unexpected monthly charges, prompting federal scrutiny.
Jadrian Wooten discusses various stories related to economic principles and teaching, including unemployment expectations, electric vehicle registrations, and a debate on remote versus in-office work compensation.
An argument that political pressure on the Federal Reserve undermines its independence, risking economic stability and drawing parallels to authoritarian regimes' manipulation of monetary policy.
Scott Cunningham discusses his preparations for teaching, reflections on research, and various topics including AI, economics, and pop culture.
The post discusses Venezuela's need for institutional reforms and careful economic policies to avoid dependency on oil and prevent corruption after Maduro's presidency.